Trans-Atlantic Exchange Rate Report For September 30th - October 4th
By Lucas Messaggi, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team
Trans-Atlantic Currencies Index
Source: DBonomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.
During the week of September 30th to October 4th, the four Atlantic currencies all experienced positive changes in their exchange rates. Leading the group, the British pound (green) saw the most significant rise, increasing by approximately 2.24%. The Euro (blue) followed with a 1.10% gain, while the Swiss franc (maroon) posted a 0.70% increase. The Canadian dollar (red) had the smallest, yet still positive, change, with an increase of around 0.47%.
Trans-Atlantic Historic Trends
Source: Dbonomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
After adding this week’s data to our historic trends graph, several key movements are apparent. The Canadian dollar (red) ended September above its upper boundary, but dipped just below that level as it entered October, signaling a continued downward trend into the following week. Similarly, the Swiss franc (maroon) has also begun trending downward, now sitting just below its upper boundary as October begins. The Euro (blue) experienced a significant drop in its exchange rate, moving steadily toward its three-month rolling average. Lastly, the British pound (green) saw a sharp decrease, ending just above its three-month average. More data will be added in the coming weeks to monitor these trends further.
Additional Reading
This article gives some insight into the U.S. Dockworker Union Strike. A prolonged strike could have negative impacts on the strength of the U.S. dollar, as well as global imports/exports
This article looks at the U.S CPI and Inflation from the year to produce forecasts of what could occur, as well as looks at how the UK could improve its currency strength.
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