Trans-Atlantic Exchange Rate Report for January 15 – 19
By: Dan Hogan, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team
Trans-Atlantic Currencies Index
Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.
During the week of January 15th–19th, all currencies within the Trans-Atlantic group experienced a weakening trend against the United States Dollar. Closing the week nearly 2% lower, the Swiss franc (maroon) exhibited the most significant depreciation compared to its starting value on January 12th. The British pound (green) initially declined by over 1% in value by midweek but managed to recover half a percent, concluding the week at a -0.5% change from its starting point against the USD. Both the Canadian dollar (red) and Euro (blue) followed similar trajectories, undergoing a modest yet consistent depreciation and finishing the observed period 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively, lower against the USD. The USD demonstrated strength throughout the week, appreciating against all local currencies.
Trans-Atlantic Historical Trends
Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
During the week of January 15th–19th, all currencies faced losses against the USD, influencing the three-month outlook. The Canadian dollar (CAD) came close to its rolling three-month average, persisting in its decline from the December peak. The Euro (EUR) and Swiss franc (CHF) exhibited similar behavior, dropping just above their respective averages, yet maintaining levels above their lows from early November. In contrast, the British pound (GBP) stands out, consistently hovering around the upper bound after weeks of minimal movement. Despite minimal losses from the GBP, the trans-Atlantic group collectively continues to depreciate against the greenback. The rally observed from November to early January has subsided, and the USD is regaining value across the board.
Additional Reading:
This article covers more analytical insight and picks key reports to watch for to indicate how the USD will perform.
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