Primary Commodities Report for October 7th – 18th

By: Gabriel Kukulka, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team

Commodities Index

Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Rates are in United States dollars per one (1) unit of goods. Brent Crude Oil and Natural Gas are measured in barrels, Gold is per ounce, and the ETF is per share. They are all indexed to be at 100 at the start of the period.

Between October 7th and October 18th, Gold was the only commodity to record a price increase, while Nickel, Brent Oil, and Natural Gas experienced notable declines. Gold (yellow) remained stable near the 0% mark in the first week, then saw a slight upward movement, closing with a 2.6% gain. Nickel (red) experienced a moderate downturn, finishing 4.9% lower. Brent Oil (black) steadily decreased throughout the two-week period, ending with a significant total loss of 9.7%. Natural Gas (green) suffered the steepest decline, plummeting by 17.8% by October 18th.

Commodities Historical Trends

Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Rates are in United States dollars per one (1) unit of goods. Brent Crude Oil and Natural Gas are measured in barrels, Gold is per ounce, and the ETF is per share. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

Three weeks into October, several noteworthy "reverse" trends have emerged in commodity markets. After a steady rise in September, Brent Oil has sharply declined, with prices now hovering near the lower boundary of its three-month rolling average. In contrast, Gold prices have surged, surpassing $2,700 per ounce last week. Natural Gas, which had reached a three-month high in early October, nearing $3.00 per barrel, has since dropped to around $2.30 per barrel. Meanwhile, Nickel prices remain relatively high, just slightly below their three-month rolling average.

Additional Reading

Why Are Gold Prices Hitting Record Highs?

The attached article highlights several factors contributing to the recent surge in gold prices, which reached an all-time high on October 18th. Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have increased by approximately 32%, driven by multiple key influences. One notable factor is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, which typically supports rising gold prices by lowering returns on other investments. Additionally, central banks, including China’s, have expanded their gold reserves, increasing demand. Analysts also point to uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. presidential election, prompting investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset.