Primary Commodities Report for October 21st – November 1st

By: Gabriel Kukulka, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team

Commodities Index

Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Rates are in United States dollars per one (1) unit of goods. Brent Crude Oil and Natural Gas are measured in barrels, Gold is per ounce, and the ETF is per share. They are all indexed to be at 100 at the start of the period.

Between October 21 and November 1, prices for two of the tracked commodities rose, while the other two declined. Natural Gas (green) saw the most significant change, with a sharp price surge on October 29 that led to a 15.2% increase by the end of the period. Gold (yellow) showed a modest gain after fluctuating around a steady price, closing up 0.6%. In contrast, Brent Oil (black) experienced a slight decline of 1.6%, while Nickel (red) faced the steepest drop, falling by 5.4%.

Commodities Historical Trends

Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Rates are in United States dollars per one (1) unit of goods. Brent Crude Oil and Natural Gas are measured in barrels, Gold is per ounce, and the ETF is per share. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

As we move into November, several commodity trends are emerging. Brent Oil is positioned just above the lower boundary of its three-month rolling average. Gold prices, though still elevated, have edged down slightly after reaching a recent all-time high. Natural Gas, now priced around $2.70 per barrel, remains above the upper boundary of its three-month rolling average. Meanwhile, Nickel continues its downward trend, which began in mid-October, with prices dipping further over the past two weeks.

Additional Reading

What should Gold Investors Expect This November?

Gold prices have surged in 2024, reaching nearly $2,800 per ounce in October, and experts believe they could soon break additional records in November. This rise is being fueled by factors such as inflation, interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming U.S. elections. Key economic indicators, including the recent jobs report, could also impact price trends. Increased demand from new investors, including wholesale retailer Costco, may further tighten supply, potentially pushing gold prices above the $3,000 per ounce mark in November.