Primary Commodities Report for November 4 – November 15
By: Gabriel Kukulka, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team
Commodities Index
Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Rates are in United States dollars per one (1) unit of goods. Brent Crude Oil and Natural Gas are measured in barrels, Gold is per ounce, and the ETF is per share. They are all indexed to be at 100 at the start of the period.
Between November 4th and November 15th, three of the four tracked commodities exhibited downward trends, while one saw a modest increase. Natural Gas (green) rose steadily, reaching a peak gain of over 6.5% on November 13th before sharply declining, ultimately closing the two-week period with a gain of 1.5%. In contrast, Nickel (red) experienced a consistent decline, finishing 3.8% lower. Similarly, Brent Oil (black) trended downward, ending with a 5.4% decrease. Gold (yellow) recorded the steepest drop among the commodities, concluding the period by 6.2%.
Commodities Historical Trends
Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Rates are in United States dollars per one (1) unit of goods. Brent Crude Oil and Natural Gas are measured in barrels, Gold is per ounce, and the ETF is per share. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
With the first two weeks of November tracked, notable shifts in commodity trends have become apparent. Brent Oilprices have continued to decline, falling below the lower boundary of their three-month rolling average to approximately $71 per barrel. Gold, after reaching record highs at the end of October, has sharply reversed, experiencing a significant drop in early November. Conversely, Natural Gas has sustained its upward trajectory, now priced at $2.80 per barrel. Meanwhile, Nickel has extended its decline, maintaining the downward trend observed since early October.
Additional Reading
Brent oil futures fell by $1.52 last week, driven by several factors. A key contributor is China's slowing economy, where widespread plant closures have reduced factory output and weakened oil demand. Experts highlight that global oil demand is also declining, largely due to China's economic slowdown. In response, OPEC has downgraded its global oil demand forecast for the remainder of 2024 and early 2025. Additionally, the prospect of over 60% tariffs on China, proposed by the incoming Trump administration, poses a further risk to China's economic growth in 2025. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve hinted at a potential interest rate cut in December, which could stimulate economic growth, increase fuel demand, and potentially drive oil prices upward.
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