Primary Commodities Report for Jan 27th – Feb 7th
By: Isha Khan, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team
Commodities Index
Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Rates are in United States dollars per one (1) unit of goods. Brent Crude Oil is measured in barrels. Natural Gas is measured in MMBtu (Million British Thermal Units), Gold is per troy ounce, and for Nickel the price reflects price per share of (NIKL) ETF. They are all indexed to be at 100 at the start of the period.
In the 2 weeks of January 27th to February 7th, Natural Gas seems to be the biggest mover relative to the commodities tracked, while Brent Oil showed the least volatility. Natural Gas (green) saw a drop right in the beginning of the first week of 6.11% then on the 28th experienced a slight increase before sharply dropping the following day to end up ~17.5% below the original baseline. Throughout the rest of the period the price showed a staggered increase ending at a little more than 10% below the baseline. Nickel (red) showed a steady decline in the first week and into the second week until February 3rd when the price had already dropped 6.6% since January 27th. From then to the 7th the price increased ~5%, ending at about 3.3% below the baseline of the period. Gold (yellow) showed a slow yet consistent rise through the two weeks ending 4.7% above the price at the start of the week, being the only commodity out of the four measured to end above their start price. Brent Oil (black) slightly increased less than a percent on the first day of the period, but the price showed a wavering descent ending at 3.14% below the baseline.
Commodities Historical Trends
Source: Yahoo Finance and own calculations. Rates are in United States dollars per one (1) unit of goods. Brent Crude Oil is measured in barrels. Natural Gas is measured in MMBtu (Million British Thermal Units), Gold is per troy ounce, and for Nickel the price reflects price per share of (NIKL) ETF. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
As the beginning of February has arrived all of the commodities measured seem to significant changes in prices. Gold price continues to rise keeping the upward trend from January and ending at $2889.5/oz. Brent Oil price has continued the decrease in price since mid-January ending below the three-month rolling average at $74.19/barrel. Following the sharp decline at the end of January, Natural Gas prices have risen, falling just below the three-month rolling average ending at $3.435/barrel. Nickel prices still seem to follow the turbulent decline we have seen over the past three months. Since the beginning of February, the price has increased to $10.36 and ended just below that price at $10.20.
Additional Reading
In light of the aggressive trade policies being taken by the US administration under president Trump a trend of de-dollarization has begun. The tariffs put on major economic partners have triggered retaliatory measures and people along with banks are looking to find solid ground for their money, in this case it seems gold. Citi has raised its short-term forecast for gold price from $2,800 to $3,000 amid a record-breaking increase of quantity gold demanded of 4974.5 metric tons in 2024. The estimates for gold price by end-2025 are bullish with most being at the $3,000 mark. Uncertainty about the Fed’s interest rate path is also adding to this sentiment of ‘solid’ investment and a large degree of future gold price relies on the impact of incoming fiscal and monetary policies.
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