Harmonized Beer Report for European Nations for August 2024

By Danny Hogan, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team 

European Beer Index 

Source: FRED and own calculations. Rates indexed to be 100 at the start of the period. 

With the release of the August beer price data, it appears that the price stability observed over recent months is starting to unravel. Ireland (red) has seen a notable uptick, with beer prices increasing by more than 0.5% since the start of July. In contrast, Hungary (yellow) has experienced a 1% drop in beer prices since July and a 1.5% decrease from the June peak. Germany (blue) mirrors Ireland's trend, with prices rising just under 0.5% since July 1st. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic (green) continues its downward trajectory for the third consecutive month, albeit at a slower rate, with prices falling by just under 0.1%. The group is now split between contrasting trends: while Ireland and Germany are experiencing their highest price increases in five months, Hungary and the Czech Republic are seeing continued price declines. As Oktoberfest celebrations are underway, it will be interesting to observe whether beer prices begin to stabilize or continue on their divergent paths.

Harmonized Beer Index Historic Trends 

Source: FRED and own calculations. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the rolling three-month average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same time period. 

Despite the significant price fluctuations over the past two months, beer prices remain historically stable. Currently, only Hungary sits outside its +/- 1 standard deviation range. The Czech Republic (CZ) has aligned almost perfectly with its rolling three-month average after experiencing consecutive months of slight declines, suggesting that beer prices in the country have settled at a new, lower level compared to recent months, though still significantly higher than two years ago. Meanwhile, Ireland and Germany are nearing their upper bounds following the recent price increases. However, in a broader context, both countries are witnessing steady, consistent growth in beer prices. It will be intriguing to see how the coming months impact this growth trajectory.