CEE Exchange Rate Updates: Week of October 16 – 20, 2023

By: Allison Goegel, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team

CEE Currencies Index

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period).

During the week of October 16th - 20th, two Central European exchange rates experienced significant changes while two did not. The Czech koruna (blue) minimally fluctuated this week however overall experienced no change. The Hungarian forint (green) steadily increased this week strengthening by 1.22%. The Polish zloty (red) is continuously increasing, experiencing the biggest change this week strengthening 1.56%. The Romanian leu (yellow) alike to the Czech koruna experienced very minimal change.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

For the week of October 16th - 20th, the Czech koruna (CZK) managed to remain below its lower bound and decrease additionally this past week. The Hungarian forint (HUF) increased and reached its average bound after a period of fluctuation. The Polish zloty (PLN) experienced a significant increaseand reached its higher bound. The Romanian leu (RON) fell below its lower bound once again.

It is worth noting that after a period of remaining beyond their lower bound, the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty have made significant strengthening. Notably, the Polish zloty experienced this complete growth in the past two weeks after the Polish central bank’s decision on October 4th to cut interest rates.