CEE Exchange Rates Report for September 30th – October 4th

By: Zoe McLaughlin, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team

CEE Currencies Index

Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period. 

During the week of September 30 to October 4, the Czech koruna (red), Hungarian forint (green), Polish złoty (blue), and Romanian leu (purple) all saw slight increases in value relative to the United States dollar. The Hungarian forint had the most significant change, ending the week with a gain of 2.20%. The Czech koruna followed closely with an increase of 1.88%, despite experiencing a mid-week low of -0.24% on September 30. The Polish złoty also showed positive movement, finishing the week up by 1.83%, having dipped to a mid-week low of -0.22% on the same day. Finally, the Romanian leu experienced the smallest change, closing the week with a gain of 1.08% relative to the U.S. dollar, which included a mid-week low of -0.36% on September 30.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends

Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period. 

Following this week’s fluctuations, the Czech koruna and Polish złoty are slightly below their respective three-month rolling averages, indicating a minor dip in their performance against the United States dollar. The Romanian leu, however, remains slightly above its three-month average, reflecting a stable position. In contrast, the Hungarian forint is significantly more than one standard deviation below its three-month rolling average, highlighting a notable decline in its exchange rate relative to the U.S. dollar.

Additional Reading                

The MNB increased Hungary’s gold reserves to a record high level of 110 tonnes

In this press release, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Hungary’s national bank, explains their rational for increasing Hungary’s gold reserves from 94.5 metric tons to a record high of 110 metric tons. They cite gold as a safe and stabilizing asset in an increasingly unstable global economy. Hungary now has the highest per-capita gold reserves in Central and Eastern Europe.

Poland’s central bank keeps rates unchanged; easing likely on hold until 2025

Poland’s central bank elected not to cut interest rates at their latest meeting, remaining at a policy rate of 5.75%. This is due to a currently weak economy and high inflation.