CEE Exchange Rates Report for September 23rd – 27th

By: Zoe McLaughlin, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team

CEE Currencies Index

Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period. 

During the week of September 23 – September 27, the Czech koruna (red), Hungarian forint (green), Polish złoty (blue), and Romanian leu (purple) all increased in value relative to the United States dollar, albeit only slightly. The Hungarian forint experienced the most significant change, ending the week at an increase of 0.90% relative to the United States dollar. The Czech koruna ended the week with an increase of 0.39%, with a mid-week low of -0.07% on September 25. The Romanian leu ended the week at an increase of 0.11%, with a mid-week low of -0.22% on September 25. The Polish złoty experienced the least significant change, ending the week at an increase of 0.01% relative to the United States dollar, with a mid-week low of -0.53% on September 25.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends

Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period. 

After this week, the Czech koruna, Polish złoty, and Romanian leu all remain over one standard deviation above their respective three-month rolling averages relative to the United States dollar. The Hungarian forint is approximately one standard deviation above its three-month rolling average.

Additional Reading                        

National Bank of Hungary review: Back in business.

As predicted, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Hungary’s national bank, cut the policy interest rate by twenty-five basis points to 6.50%. This is in line with recent decisions by the Fed and the European Central Bank, and also due to improved national inflation metrics.

Czech central bank cuts rates with more reductions expected.

The Czech national bank also cut interest rates this week by twenty-five basis points to 4.25%, in line with recent decisions from other central banks globally and due to optimistic inflation data.