CEE Exchange Rates Report for September 16th – 20th
By: Zoe McLaughlin, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team
CEE Currencies Index
Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.
During the week of September 16 – September 20, the Czech koruna (red), Hungarian forint (green), Polish złoty (blue), and Romanian leu (purple) all decreased in value relative to the United States dollar, albeit only slightly. The Hungarian forint experienced the most significant change, ending the week at a decrease of 1.18% relative to the United States dollar. The Polish złoty decreased by 1.07%, the Czech koruna by 1.03%, and the Romanian leu by 0.75%.
CEE Currencies Historical Trends
Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
Though they all decreased this week, the Czech koruna, Hungarian forint, Polish złoty, and Romanian leu are all trending upward relative to the United States dollar. All four currencies are greater than one standard deviation above their three-month rolling averages relative to the United States dollar.
Additional Reading:
This article covers an analysis of the Hungarian interest rate policy compared to the United States and European Central Bank. As the US has already cut interest rates recently, and the ECB is expected to follow suit, this analysis posits that there is also ample opportunity and reason for the Magyar Nemzeti Bank to cut rates as well.
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