CEE Exchange Rates Report for October 14th – October 18th
By: Zoe McLaughlin, The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team
CEE Currencies Index
Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.
During the week of October 14 – October 18, all four tracked Central European currencies— the Czech koruna (red), Hungarian forint (green), Polish złoty (blue), and Romanian leu (purple)— strengthened against the U.S. dollar. The Polish złoty saw the most notable rise, closing the week with a 1.17% gain. The Romanian leu followed with a 0.64% increase, while the Czech koruna posted a 0.52% rise. The Hungarian forint saw the smallest movement, ending the week up by 0.38%, peaking mid-week at 0.41% on October 16.
CEE Currencies Historical Trends
Source: DBNomics and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be USD per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
After this week, the Czech koruna, Hungarian forint, Polish złoty, and Romanian leu are all over one standard deviation below their respective three-month rolling averages.
Additional Reading
The governor of the Czech National Bank has indicated a cautious approach to any future interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to avoid further inflationary pressures on the Czech koruna. The bank has been gradually reducing the pace of its interest rate cuts, and this trend is anticipated to persist as they carefully assess economic conditions.
The Deputy Governor of Hungary’s Magyar Nemzeti Bank announced that the country is considering a pause in its current cycle of interest rate cuts, contingent upon developments in global and domestic markets. With the MNB's next meeting scheduled for October 22, it is anticipated that interest rates will remain unchanged. Inflation in Hungary continues to exceed the bank's target, and the Hungarian forint has been experiencing significant declines in recent weeks.
留言