CEE Exchange Rate Update: Week of Oct 9-15, 2023

By Allison Goegel, Quinnipiac Global Economics Research Team

CEE Currencies Index

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to 100 at the start of the period.

During the week of October 6- October 15, the Polish zloty had the most significant change amongst the Central European exchange rates tracked. The Czech koruna (blue) experienced the largest decrease this week at 1.00%. The Hungarian forint (green) displayed fluctuations this week, decreasing minimally by .237%. The Polish zloty (red) has been increasing recently and finished the week by strengthening 1.396%. The Romanian leu (yellow) experienced no change this week. Notably, for the past 2 weeks the leu has remained very consistent.

CEE Currencies Historical Trends

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be Euro per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

For the week of October 9- October 15, the Czech koruna (CZK) managed to remain below its lower bound and decrease additionally this past week. The Hungarian forint (HUF) continued to remain between its lower bound and its average bound. The Polish zloty (PLN) after only inching towards its lower bound, has made a complete recovery and almost reached its average bound. The Romanian leu (RON) reached its lower bound.

It is worth noting that all these observed currencies have been weakening in recent months, and all but the Czech koruna have seemed to return to their lower bound. Notably, the Polish zloty has made significant growth after the Polish central bank’s decision on October 4th to cut interest rates.